With Christmas just days away and intermittent snowfall already seen this month, many across southern Ontario are keeping a close eye on the forecast to see if a white Christmas is in store.
Earlier long-range outlooks suggested some potential for wintry weather. The Farmers’ Almanac had forecast colder and drier conditions across eastern Canada, along with a chance of snow leading into the holiday season.
Historically, however, the odds of a white Christmas in southern Ontario are mixed. Environment and Climate Change Canada defines a white Christmas as having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time on December 25.
Weather records from 1955 to 2023 across 45 major Canadian cities show a 49 per cent chance of a snow-covered Christmas in the Greater Toronto Area and a 43 per cent chance in Toronto. More recent data from 1997 to 2023 lowers those probabilities to 36 per cent for the GTA and 40 per cent for Toronto. During the period from 1989 to 2023, the GTA experienced 20 green Christmases, according to Environment Canada.
Hamilton historically has better odds. Long-term data from 1955 to 2023 shows a 59 per cent chance of snow on the ground Christmas morning, while records from 1997 to 2023 place the probability at 56 per cent. Hamilton recorded 14 green Christmases over the same timeframe.
Short-term forecasts, however, point toward milder conditions this Christmas across much of southern Ontario. Environment Canada is predicting cloudy skies with a 40 per cent chance of showers for Mississauga, Brampton, and Halton, with daytime highs around 4°C and overnight lows near 1°C. Hamilton is expected to reach a high of about 6°C, while Durham may see highs near 3°C.
The Weather Network adds that confidence remains low for a snow-covered Christmas in areas south of Highway 401, including Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton, and east toward Kingston. Weather systems moving through Lake Superior are expected to bring snow to northern regions, while rain farther south could melt or prevent snow accumulation.
While a white Christmas may be unlikely for many communities this year, the Farmers’ Almanac suggests colder air and snow could return later in the month, potentially bringing wintry conditions closer to New Year’s Eve and into the new year
Photo Credits : Insauga
