Drivers across Durham Region may want to compare prices carefully before filling their tanks this weekend, with a new forecast pointing to a significant increase in GTA gasoline prices by Sunday.
Durham gas prices already vary widely between stations, but energy analyst Dan McTeague of Canadians for Affordable Energy is predicting additional increases Saturday and Sunday.
McTeague told Metroland that regular gasoline could rise by two cents per litre Saturday followed by another five-cent increase Sunday.
If that forecast holds, the GTA’s peak price for regular gasoline could reach approximately 183.9 cents per litre Sunday morning.
That does not mean every station in Durham will charge 183.9 cents. Retail fuel prices can vary considerably between communities, brands and individual stations.
Durham gas prices vary between communities
Recent reported prices show the difference Durham drivers can encounter even within a relatively short distance.
In Ajax, one station was reporting regular gasoline at approximately 171 cents per litre late Friday, while several nearby stations were around 169 to 170 cents.
Whitby prices also varied, with one station reporting approximately 177 cents per litre while some nearby competitors were several cents cheaper.
In Oshawa, a Costco fuel station was reported at approximately 167 cents per litre Friday afternoon.
Pickering stations were also showing different prices depending on location and retailer.
Those differences mean motorists should not assume a GTA-wide forecast will appear identically at every Durham pump.
Sunday increase could add up for drivers
A seven-cent increase over the weekend would become more noticeable when filling a larger vehicle.
For example, seven additional cents per litre would add $3.50 to the cost of putting 50 litres of fuel into a vehicle.
A 70-litre fill would cost $4.90 more.
The actual impact will depend on where motorists buy fuel and the price posted by that particular station.
McTeague’s forecast also calls for diesel prices to increase, rising one cent Saturday and another three cents Sunday.
The supplied forecast puts the GTA diesel price at approximately 224.9 cents per litre Sunday morning.
Gas-price forecast remains a prediction
Gasoline forecasts should be treated differently from actual posted retail prices.
Canadians for Affordable Energy publishes daily gasoline forecasts based on movements in energy markets and provides separate price information for several Ontario communities, including Oshawa and Pickering.
Pump prices can still change because of local competition, retailer margins and other factors.
That is why two stations located only a few kilometres apart can sometimes display noticeably different prices.
Global oil market pressures affecting prices
McTeague attributed the latest increase to pressures affecting global energy transportation and supply.
The report cited several international shipping constraints and disruptions that have complicated the movement of oil and other commodities.
Changes in global crude oil and wholesale gasoline markets can eventually make their way into retail prices paid by Ontario drivers.
However, Durham motorists are most likely to notice the immediate impact through changes posted at individual stations throughout the weekend.
Comparing prices could save Durham drivers money
With Durham gas prices potentially moving higher by Sunday, drivers may benefit from checking several stations rather than automatically filling up at the closest location.
Current local reports already show differences of several cents per litre between competing stations in Ajax, Whitby, Pickering and Oshawa.
McTeague also advises GTA motorists to consider buying gasoline later in the day because some retailers reduce margins during evening price competition.
Drivers should confirm the posted price at the pump before purchasing, as online price reports and forecasts can change quickly.
For Durham residents planning a weekend trip or a longer drive, the forecast suggests filling up at a competitively priced station before the expected Sunday increase could reduce the cost.
