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Thunderstorms Could Bring Up to 40 mm of Rain to Southern Ontario on March 11 Weather

Agent by Agent
March 11, 2026
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Residents across Durham Region and the Greater Toronto Area should prepare for a mix of intense weather conditions as March 11 weather in southern Ontario could bring heavy rain, thunderstorms, fog and even overnight flurries.

According to Environment Canada, a weather system moving through the region is expected to bring significant rainfall beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday evening. Meteorologists say the storm could deliver between 10 and 20 millimetres of rain, with some areas potentially receiving as much as 40 millimetres.

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The unsettled weather is expected to affect communities across Durham Region, including Oshawa, Ajax, Pickering, Whitby and Clarington, along with other parts of southern Ontario such as Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Hamilton and Niagara.

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Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement warning residents about the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall during the day.

The March 11 weather in southern Ontario is expected to begin with showers in the early morning hours, followed by a 60 per cent chance of rain throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms are also possible during both the morning and afternoon as the weather system moves across the region.

Meteorologists say that fog patches may develop during the morning, potentially reducing visibility for drivers before gradually clearing around midday.

Temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild for early March, with daytime highs reaching around 15°C in parts of the Greater Toronto Area.

However, conditions will change quickly once the storm system moves through later in the evening.

Rain showers are expected to continue into Wednesday night, and forecasters say colder air moving into the region could lead to a 30 per cent chance of flurries overnight.

Strong winds may also accompany the system, with gusts reaching up to 60 kilometres per hour in Toronto and about 50 kilometres per hour in surrounding areas.

Temperatures will drop significantly overnight, with lows falling to around –4°C, though wind chill could make it feel closer to –12°C in some areas.

Weather experts say these rapid changes are typical during the transition between winter and spring in Ontario, when warm air systems can quickly clash with lingering cold air.

Drivers across Durham Region and the GTA are advised to use caution on the roads, particularly during periods of heavy rain or reduced visibility caused by fog.

Local residents are also encouraged to stay updated on weather alerts and forecasts as conditions may change throughout the day.

Looking ahead to Thursday, the weather is expected to calm somewhat after the storm passes. Forecasts indicate a mix of sun and cloud with a 30 per cent chance of flurries.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with daytime highs around 3°C and overnight lows near –9°C.

The March 11 weather in southern Ontario serves as a reminder that late winter and early spring can bring rapidly changing conditions across the region.

Residents planning outdoor activities or commuting across the GTA and Durham Region should be prepared for rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds and colder temperatures overnight as the storm system moves through the area.

Tags: Ajax WeatherDurham regionEnvironment CanadaGTA WeatherOshawa WeatherPickering WeatherRain Storm OntarioSouthern Ontario WeatherWhitby Weather
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